Predictors of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir receipt among COVID-19 patients in a large US health system.

A clear understanding of real-world uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 can inform treatment allocation strategies and improve interpretation of effectiveness studies. We used data from a large US healthcare system to describe nirmatrelvir-ritonavir dispenses among all SARS-CoV-2 positive patients aged ≥ 12 years meeting recommended National Institutes of Health treatment eligibility criteria for the study period between 1 January and 31 December, 2022. Overall, 10.9% (N = 34,791/319,900) of treatment eligible patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir over the study period. Although uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir increased over time, by the end of 2022, less than a quarter of treatment eligible patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections had received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir. Across patient demographics, treatment was generally consistent with tiered treatment guidelines, with dispenses concentrated among patients aged ≥ 65 years (14,706/63,921; 23.0%), and with multiple comorbidities (10,989/54,431; 20.1%). However, neighborhoods of lower socioeconomic status (upper third of neighborhood deprivation index [NDI]) had between 12% (95% CI: 7-18%) and 28% (25-32%) lower odds of treatment dispense over the time periods studied compared to the lower third of NDI distribution, even after accounting for demographic and clinical characteristics. A limited chart review (N = 40) confirmed that in some cases a decision not to treat was appropriate and aligned with national guidelines to use clinical judgement on a case-by-case basis. There is a need to enhance patient and provider awareness on the availability and benefits of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for the treatment of COVID-19 illness.

DNA methylation markers for risk of metastasis in a cohort of men with localized prostate cancer.

Accurately identifying life-threatening prostate cancer (PCa) at time of diagnosis remains an unsolved problem. We evaluated whether DNA methylation status of selected candidate genes can predict the risk of metastasis beyond clinical risk factors in men with untreated PCa. A nested case-control study was conducted among men diagnosed with localized PCa at Kaiser Permanente California between 01/01/1997-12/31/2006 who did not receive curative treatments. Cases were those who developed metastasis within 10 years from diagnosis. Controls were selected using density sampling. Ninety-eight candidate genes were selected from functional categories of cell cycle control, metastasis/tumour suppressors, cell signalling, cell adhesion/motility/invasion, angiogenesis, and immune function, and 41 from pluripotency genes. Cancer DNA from diagnostic biopsy blocks were extracted and analysed. Associations of methylation status were assessed using CpG site level and principal components-based analysis in conditional logistic regressions. In 215 cases and 404 controls, 27 candidate genes were found to be statistically significant in at least one of the two analytical approaches. The agreement between the methods was 25.9% (7 candidate genes, including 2 pluripotency markers). The DNA methylation status of several candidate genes was significantly associated with risk of metastasis in untreated localized PCa patients. These findings may inform future risk prediction models for PCa metastasis beyond clinical characteristics.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent mRNA vaccine against a range of COVID-19 outcomes in a large health system in the USA: a test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: XBB-related omicron sublineages have recently replaced BA.4/5 as the predominant omicron sublineages in the USA and other regions globally. Despite preliminary signs of immune evasion of XBB sublineages, few data exist describing the real-world effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines, especially against XBB-related illness. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of the Pfizer--BioNTech BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent vaccine against both BA.4/5-related and XBB-related disease in adults aged 18 years or older. METHODS: In this test-negative case-control study, we estimated the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent vaccine using data from electronic health records of Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system members aged 18 years or older who received at least two doses of the wild-type COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Participants sought care for acute respiratory infection between Aug 31, 2022, and April 15, 2023, and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR tests. Relative vaccine effectiveness (≥2 doses of wild-type mRNA vaccine plus a BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster vs ≥2 doses of a wild-type mRNA vaccine alone) and absolute vaccine effectiveness (vs unvaccinated individuals) was estimated against critical illness related to acute respiratory infection (intensive care unit [ICU] admission, mechanical ventilation, or inpatient death), hospital admission, emergency department or urgent care visits, and in-person outpatient encounters with odds ratios from logistic regression models adjusted for demographic and clinical factors. We stratified vaccine effectiveness estimates for hospital admission, emergency department or urgent care visits, and outpatient encounters by omicron sublineage (ie, likely BA.4/5-related vs likely XBB-related), time since bivalent booster receipt, age group, number of wild-type doses received, and immunocompromised status. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04848584). FINDINGS: Analyses were conducted for 123 419 encounters (24 246 COVID-19 cases and 99 173 test-negative controls), including 4131 episode of critical illness (a subset of hospital admissions), 14 529 hospital admissions, 63 566 emergency department or urgent care visits, and 45 324 outpatient visits. 20 555 infections were BA.4/5 related and 3691 were XBB related. In adjusted analyses, relative vaccine effectiveness for those who received the BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster compared with those who received at least two doses of a wild-type mRNA vaccine alone was an additional 50% (95% CI 23-68) against critical illness, an additional 39% (28-49) against hospital admission, an additional 35% (30-40) against emergency department or urgent care visits, and an additional 28% (22-33) against outpatient encounters. Waning of the bivalent booster from 0-3 months to 4-7 months after vaccination was evident for outpatient outcomes but was not detected for critical illness, hospital admission, and emergency department or urgent care outcomes. The relative effectiveness of the BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster for XBB-related infections compared with BA.4/5-related infections was 56% (95% CI 12-78) versus 40% (27-50) for hospital admission; 34% (21-45) versus 36% (30-41) against emergency department or urgent care visits; and 29% (19-38) versus 27% (20-33) for outpatient encounters. INTERPRETATION: By mid-April, 2023, individuals previously vaccinated only with wild-type vaccines had little protection against COVID-19-including hospital admission. A BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster restored protection against a range of COVID-19 outcomes, including against XBB-related sublineages, with the most substantial protection observed against hospital admission and critical illness. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Association of Antepartum and Postpartum Air Pollution Exposure With Postpartum Depression in Southern California.

Importance: Women are especially vulnerable to mental health matters post partum because of biological, emotional, and social changes during this period. However, epidemiologic evidence of an association between air pollution exposure and postpartum depression (PPD) is limited. Objective: To examine the associations between antepartum and postpartum maternal air pollution exposure and PPD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) electronic health records and included women who had singleton live births at KPSC facilities between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed between January 1 and May 10, 2023. Exposures: Ambient air pollution exposures were assessed based on maternal residential addresses using monthly averages of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5), particulate matter less than or equal to 10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from spatial interpolation of monitoring station measurements. Constituents of PM2.5 (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic matter, and black carbon) were obtained from fine-resolution geoscience-derived models based on satellite, ground-based monitor, and chemical transport modeling data. Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants with an Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale score of 10 or higher during the 6 months after giving birth were referred to a clinical interview for further assessment and diagnosis. Ascertainment of PPD was defined using a combination of diagnostic codes and prescription medications. Results: The study included 340 679 participants (mean [SD] age, 30.05 [5.81] years), with 25 674 having PPD (7.54%). Increased risks for PPD were observed to be associated with per-IQR increases in antepartum and postpartum exposures to O3 (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.09; 95% CI, 1.06-1.12), PM10 (AOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04), and PM2.5 (AOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1. 00-1.03) but not with NO2; PPD risks were mainly associated with PM2.5 organic matter and black carbon. Overall, a higher risk of PPD was associated with O3 during the entire pregnancy and postpartum periods and with PM exposure during the late pregnancy and postpartum periods. Conclusions and Relevance: The study findings suggest that long-term exposure to antepartum and postpartum air pollution was associated with higher PPD risks. Identifying the modifiable environmental risk factors and developing interventions are important public health issues to improve maternal mental health and alleviate the disease burden of PPD.

Receipt of BNT162b2 Vaccine and COVID-19 Ambulatory Visits in US Children Younger Than 5 Years.

This study examines the association of the receipt of wild-type BNT162b2 vaccine with medically attended COVID-19 outcomes among children younger than 5 years in the US.

Baseline Psychosocial, Environmental, Health, and Behavioral Correlates of 1- and 3-Year Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery.

PURPOSE: Weight loss surgery is an effective, long-term treatment for severe obesity but individual response to surgery varies widely. The purpose of this study was to test a comprehensive theoretical model of factors that may be correlated with the greatest surgical weight loss at 1-3 years following surgery. Such a model would help determine what predictive factors to measure when patients are preparing for surgery that may ensure the best weight outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Bariatric Experience Long Term (BELONG) study collected self-reported and medical record-based baseline information as correlates of 1- and 3-year % total weight loss (TWL) in n = 1341 patients. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the associations between 120 baseline variables and %TWL. RESULTS: Participants were 43.4 ± 11.3 years old, Hispanic or Black (52%; n = 699), women (86%; n = 1149), and partnered (72%; n = 965) and had annual incomes of ≥ $51,000 (60%; n = 803). A total of 1006 (75%) had 3-year follow-up weight. Regression models accounted for 10.1% of the variance in %TWL at 1-year and 13.6% at 3 years. Only bariatric operation accounted for a clinically meaningful difference (~ 5%) in %TWL at 1-year. At 3 years after surgery, only bariatric operation, Black race, and BMI ≥ 50 kg/m2 were associated with clinically meaningful differences in %TWL. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings combined with many others support a move away from extensive screening and selection of patients at the time of surgery to a focus on improving access to this treatment.

Analysis of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake Among Immunocompromised Individuals in a Large US Health System.

Importance: Immunocompromised individuals are at increased risk for severe outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Given the varying and complex nature of COVID-19 vaccination recommendations, it is important to understand COVID-19 vaccine uptake in this vulnerable population. Objective: To assess mRNA COVID-19 vaccine uptake and factors associated with uptake among immunocompromised individuals from December 14, 2020, through August 6, 2022. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted with patients of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), an integrated health care system in the US. The study included patients aged 18 years or older who were immunocompromised (individuals with an immunocompromising condition or patients who received immunosuppressive medications in the year prior to December 14, 2020) and still met criteria for being immunocompromised 1 year later. Exposures: Age, sex, self-identified race and ethnicity, prior positive COVID-19 test result, immunocompromising condition, immunomodulating medication, comorbidities, health care utilization, and neighborhood median income. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were the number of doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine received and the factors associated with receipt of at least 4 doses, estimated by hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% Wald CIs via Cox proportional hazards regression. Statistical analyses were conducted between August 9 and 23, 2022. Results: Overall, 42 697 immunocompromised individuals met the study eligibility criteria. Among these, 18 789 (44.0%) were aged 65 years or older; 20 061 (47.0%) were women and 22 635 (53.0%) were men. With regard to race and ethnicity, 4295 participants (10.1%) identified as Asian or Pacific Islander, 5174 (12.1%) as Black, 14 289 (33.5%) as Hispanic, and 17 902 (41.9%) as White. As of the end of the study period and after accounting for participant censoring due to death or disenrollment from the KPSC health plan, 78.0% of immunocompromised individuals had received a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Only 41.0% had received a fourth dose, which corresponds to a primary series and a monovalent booster dose for immunocompromised individuals. Uptake of a fifth dose was only 0.9% following the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation to receive a second monovalent booster (ie, fifth dose). Adults aged 65 years or older (HR, 3.95 [95% CI, 3.70-4.22]) were more likely to receive at least 4 doses compared with those aged 18 to 44 years or 45 to 64 years (2.52 [2.36-2.69]). Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black adults (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.74-0.80] and 0.82 [0.78-0.87], respectively, compared with non-Hispanic White adults), individuals with prior documented SARS-CoV-2 infection (0.71 [0.62-0.81] compared with those without), and individuals receiving high-dose corticosteroids (0.88 [0.81-0.95] compared with those who were not) were less likely to receive at least 4 doses. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that adherence to CDC mRNA monovalent COVID-19 booster dose recommendations among immunocompromised individuals was low. Given the increased risk for severe COVID-19 in this vulnerable population and the well-established additional protection afforded by booster doses, targeted and tailored efforts to ensure that immunocompromised individuals remain up to date with COVID-19 booster dose recommendations are warranted.

BNT162b2 Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Visits Among Children 5-11 Years of Age: A Test Negative Design.

In a 1:1 matched test-negative design among 5- to 11-year-olds in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system (n = 3984), BNT162b2 effectiveness against the omicron-related emergency department or urgent care encounters was 60% [95%CI: 47-69] <3 months post-dose-two and 28% [8-43] after ≥3 months. A booster improved protection to 77% [53-88].

Effectiveness and durability of BNT162b2 vaccine against hospital and emergency department admissions due to SARS-CoV-2 omicron sub-lineages BA.1 and BA.2 in a large health system in the USA: a test-negative, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529 BA.1) lineage was first detected in November, 2021, and is associated with reduced vaccine effectiveness. By March, 2022, BA.1 had been replaced by sub-lineage BA.2 in the USA. As new variants evolve, vaccine performance must be continually assessed. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and durability of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) against hospital and emergency department admissions for BA.1 and BA.2. METHODS: In this test-negative, case-control study, we sourced data from the electronic health records of adult (aged ≥18 years) members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), which is a health-care system in the USA, who were admitted to one of 15 KPSC hospitals or emergency departments (without subsequent hospitalisation) between Dec 27, 2021, and June 4, 2022, with an acute respiratory infection and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. Omicron sub-lineage was determined by use of sequencing, spike gene target failure, and the predominance of variants in certain time periods. Our main outcome was the effectiveness of two or three doses of BNT162b2 in preventing emergency department or hospital admission. Variant-specific vaccine effectiveness was evaluated by comparing the odds ratios from logistic regression models of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls, adjusting for the month of admission, age, sex, race and ethnicity, body-mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, previous influenza or pneumococcal vaccines, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. We also assessed effectiveness by the time since vaccination. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: Of 65 813 total admissions during the study period, we included 16 994 in our analyses, of which 7435 were due to BA.1, 1056 were due to BA.2, and 8503 were not due to SARS-CoV-2. In adjusted analyses, two-dose vaccine effectiveness was 40% (95% CI 27 to 50) for hospitalisation and 29% (18 to 38) for emergency department admission against BA.1 and 56% (31 to 72) for hospitalisation and 16% (-5 to 33) for emergency department admission against BA.2. Three-dose vaccine effectiveness was 79% (74 to 83) for hospitalisation and 72% (67 to 77) for emergency department admission against BA.1 and 71% (55 to 81) for hospitalisation and 21% (1 to 37) for emergency department admission against BA.2. Less than 3 months after the third dose, vaccine effectiveness was 80% (74 to 84) for hospitalisation and 74% (69 to 78) for emergency department admission against BA.1. Vaccine effectiveness 3 months or more after the third dose was 76% (69 to 82) against BA.1-related hospitalisation and 65% (56 to 73) against BA.1-related emergency department admission. Against BA.2, vaccine effectiveness was 74% (47 to 87) for hospitalisation and 59% (40 to 72) for emergency department admission at less than 3 months after the third dose and 70% (53 to 81) for hospitalisation and 5% (-21 to 25) for emergency department admission at 3 months or more after the third dose. INTERPRETATION: Two doses of BNT162b2 provided only partial protection against BA.1-related and BA.2-related hospital and emergency department admission, which underscores the need for booster doses against omicron. Although three doses offered high levels of protection (≥70%) against hospitalisation, variant-adapted vaccines are probably needed to improve protection against less severe endpoints, like emergency department admission, especially for BA.2. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Exposure to statins post localized prostate cancer diagnosis and risk of metastasis among men who did not receive curative prostate cancer treatment.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated the effect of statin exposure on metastasis risk among prostate cancer patients not receiving curative treatment. METHODS: We included men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer at an integrated health care system between 1997 and 2006 who did not receive curative treatment within 6 months of diagnosis. We followed these men until a metastatic event, disenrollment, death, or 12/31/2016. We collected all data from electronic health records supplemented by chart review. We used Cox regressions to examine the association between post-diagnostic statin exposure and metastasis, controlling for clinical characteristics and pre-diagnostic statin exposure. RESULTS: There were 4245 men included. Mean age of diagnosis was 68.02 years. 46.6% of men used statins after prostate cancer diagnosis. During follow-up, 192 men developed metastasis (cumulative incidence rate: 14.5%). In the adjusted Cox model, statin use post-prostate cancer diagnosis was not significantly associated with a metastatic event (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.69, 1.36). Pre-diagnostic statin use was also not associated with development of metastasis (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.53, 1.10). We did not observe a dose-response for the proportion of person-time at-risk post-prostate cancer diagnosis on statins (HR = 0.98 per 10% increase in person-time exposed [95% CI = 0.93, 1.03]). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find an inverse association between post-diagnosis statin exposure and metastasis development in localized prostate cancer patients who did not receive active treatment. Our results did not offer support to the chemopreventive potential of post-diagnostic statin use among men on active surveillance.

Effectiveness Associated With BNT162b2 Vaccine Against Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters for Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Adolescents Aged 12 to 17 Years.

Importance: Data about the duration of protection of 2 and 3 doses of BNT162b2 in children and adolescents are needed to help inform recommendations for boosters in this age group. Objective: To evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) and durability associated with 2 doses of BNT162b2 against Delta- and Omicron-related emergency department (ED) and urgent care (UC) encounters among adolescents aged 12 to 17 years and to estimate VE associated with 3 doses against these same outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This test-negative case-control study was conducted at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, an integrated health care system using electronic health records in the US. Participants included Kaiser Permanente Southern California members ages 12 to 17 years with an ED or UC encounter from November 1, 2021, through March 18, 2022, for acute respiratory infection who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 via a reverse transction-polymerase chain reaction test. Analyses were conducted from March 21 to June 22, 2022. Exposures: BNT162b2 vaccination status ascertained from electronic health records and state registry data. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was VE associated with BNT162b2 against ED and UC encounters related to Delta or Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: Analyses were conducted among 3168 adolescents, including 1004 with ED visits and 2164 with UC visits. Median (IQR) age was 15 (13-16) years, and 1461 (46.1%) were boys. In adjusted analyses, VE associated with 2 doses of BNT162b2 against ED or UC encounters was highest within the first 2 months for both Delta (89% [95% CI, 69% to 96%]) and Omicron (73% [95% CI, 54% to 84%]) variants but waned to 49% (95% CI, 27% to 65%) for the Delta variant and 16% (95% CI, -7% to 34%) for the Omicron variant at 6 months and beyond. A third dose of BNT162b2 was associated with improved protection against the Omicron variant (87% [95% CI, 72% to 94%]) after a median (IQR) of 19 (9-32) days after dose 3. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that 2 doses of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine were associated with high levels of protection against ED and UC encounters related to the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the first few months after vaccination. However, effectiveness waned over time, especially against Omicron. A third dose of BNT162b2 was associated with improved protection against Omicron beyond that seen initially after 2 doses, underscoring the importance of boosters for adolescents aged 12 to 17 years.

Beyond Screening: An Interim Report and Analysis of a Multimodal Initiative to Decrease Colon Cancer Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Colon cancer, a potentially preventable and curable cancer, remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related death in the United States. In 2010 the researchers undertook a multifaceted initiative to reduce colon cancer mortality rates by 50% over 10 years. METHODS: A baseline literature review of preventable causes of colon cancer mortality and review of 50 deaths from colon cancer in one institution identified a set of care process improvements that could be implemented to decrease colon cancer mortality. In 2017 a second mortality review identified a second set of care process improvements that were subsequently implemented. Compliance with these processes was monitored along with age and gender-adjusted mortality rates. RESULTS: Identified care process improvements included improving the follow-up of patients with rectal bleeding and presumed iron deficiency anemia and improving the reliability of postsurgical surveillance for cancer recurrence, decreasing elapsed time from surgery to chemotherapy, increasing surgical referrals for patients with advanced colon cancer, increasing the upper age limit and overall rate of colon cancer screening, increasing vitamin D and aspirin use, and monitoring and increasing the adenoma detection rate. Compliance with these processes improved for most measures, including screening (73.7% to 79.9%), adenoma detection rates on screening colonoscopy (30% to 36% for women and 42% to 49% for men), and chemotherapy within 35 days of surgery for colon cancer (39.0% to 51.9%). Age- and gender-adjusted mortality decreased from 13.8 per 100,000 in 2009-2011 to 10.5 per 100,000 in 2016-2018. CONCLUSIONS: This quality improvement program was feasible to implement, resulted in process improvements, and decreased colon cancer mortality over seven years.

Durability of BNT162b2 vaccine against hospital and emergency department admissions due to the omicron and delta variants in a large health system in the USA: a test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The duration of protection against the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant for current COVID-19 vaccines is not well characterised. Vaccine-specific estimates are especially needed. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and durability of two and three doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) mRNA vaccine against hospital and emergency department admissions due to the delta (B.1.617.2) and omicron variants. METHODS: In this case-control study with a test-negative design, we analysed electronic health records of members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), a large integrated health system in California, USA, from Dec 1, 2021, to Feb 6, 2022. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated in KPSC patients aged 18 years and older admitted to hospital or an emergency department (without a subsequent hospital admission) with a diagnosis of acute respiratory infection and tested for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was estimated with odds ratios from adjusted logistic regression models. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04848584). FINDINGS: Analyses were done for 11 123 hospital or emergency department admissions. In adjusted analyses, effectiveness of two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine against the omicron variant was 41% (95% CI 21-55) against hospital admission and 31% (16-43) against emergency department admission at 9 months or longer after the second dose. After three doses, effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admission due to the omicron variant was 85% (95% CI 80-89) at less than 3 months but fell to 55% (28-71) at 3 months or longer, although confidence intervals were wide for the latter estimate. Against emergency department admission, the effectiveness of three doses of BNT162b2 against the omicron variant was 77% (72-81) at less than 3 months but fell to 53% (36-66) at 3 months or longer. Trends in waning against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes due to the delta variant were generally similar, but with higher effectiveness estimates at each timepoint than those seen for the omicron variant. INTERPRETATION: Three doses of BNT162b2 conferred high protection against hospital and emergency department admission due to both the delta and omicron variants in the first 3 months after vaccination. However, 3 months after receipt of a third dose, waning was apparent against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes due to the omicron variant, including hospital admission. Additional doses of current, adapted, or novel COVD-19 vaccines might be needed to maintain high levels of protection against subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 caused by the omicron variant or future variants with similar escape potential. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in a large US health system: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: Globally, recommendations are expanding for third (booster) doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). In the United States, as of November 19, 2021, boosters were recommended for all adults aged 18 years and older. We evaluated the effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 among adults in a large US integrated health system. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente Southern California between Dec 14, 2020 and Dec 5, 2021 to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two and three doses of BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infections (without hospital admission) andCOVID-19-related hospital admission. VE was calculated using hazards ratios from adjusted Cox models. Findings: After only two doses, VE against infection declined from 85% (95% CI 83-86) during the first month to 49% (46-51) ≥ 7 months following vaccination. Overall VE against hospitalization was 90% (95% CI 86-92) within one month and did not wane, however, effectiveness against hospitalization appeared to wane among immunocompromised individuals but was not statistically significant (93% [72-98] at 1 month to 74% [45-88] after ≥ 7 months; p=0·490). Three-dose VE (median follow-up 1·3 months [SD 0·6]) was 88% (95% CI 86-89) against infection and 97% (95-98) against hospitalization. Effectiveness after three doses was higher than that seen one month after receiving only two doses for both outcomes. Relative VE of three doses compared to two (with at least six months after the second dose) was 75% (95% CI 71-78) against infections and 70% (48-83) against hospital admissions. Interpretation: These data support the benefit of broad BNT162b2 booster recommendations, as three doses confers comparable, if not better, protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospital admission as was seen soon after receiving two doses. Funding: Pfizer Inc.

Potentially Harmful Medication Dispenses After a Fall or Hip Fracture: A Mixed Methods Study of a Commonly Used Quality Measure.

BACKGROUND: High-risk medication dispenses to patients with a prior fall or hip fracture represent a potentially dangerous disease-drug interaction among older adults. The research team quantified the prevalence, identified risk factors, and generated patient and provider insights into high-risk medication dispenses in a large, community-based integrated health system using a commonly used quality measure. METHODS: This was a mixed methods study with a convergent design combining a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record (EHR) data, individual interviews of primary care physicians, and a focus group of patient advisors. RESULTS: Of 113,809 patients ≥ 65 years with a fall/fracture in 2009-2015, 35.4% had a potentially harmful medication dispensed after their fall/fracture. Most medications were prescribed by primary care providers. Older age, male gender, and race/ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White were associated with a reduced risk of high-risk medication dispenses. Patients with a pre-fall/fracture medication dispense were substantially more likely to have a post-fall/fracture medication dispense (hazard ratio [HR] = 13.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.91-13.61). Both patients and providers noted that providers may be unaware of patient falls due to inconsistent assessments and patient reluctance to disclose falls. Providers also noted the lack of a standard location to document falls and limited decision support alerts within the EHR. CONCLUSION: High-risk medication dispenses are common among older patients with a history of falls/fractures. Future interventions should explore improved assessment and documentation of falls, decision support, clinician training strategies, patient educational resources, building trusting patient-clinician relationships to facilitate long-term medication discontinuation among persistent medication users, and a focus on fall prevention.

Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine effectiveness studies have not differentiated the effect of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and potential waning immunity in observed reductions in effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections. We aimed to evaluate overall and variant-specific effectiveness of BNT162b2 (tozinameran, Pfizer-BioNTech) against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions by time since vaccination among members of a large US health-care system. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed electronic health records of individuals (≥12 years) who were members of the health-care organisation Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA), to assess BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions for up to 6 months. Participants were required to have 1 year or more previous membership of the organisation. Outcomes comprised SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests and COVID-19-related hospital admissions. Effectiveness calculations were based on hazard ratios from adjusted Cox models. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584. FINDINGS: Between Dec 14, 2020, and Aug 8, 2021, of 4 920 549 individuals assessed for eligibility, we included 3 436 957 (median age 45 years [IQR 29-61]; 1 799 395 [52·4%] female and 1 637 394 [47·6%] male). For fully vaccinated individuals, effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections was 73% (95% CI 72-74) and against COVID-19-related hospital admissions was 90% (89-92). Effectiveness against infections declined from 88% (95% CI 86-89) during the first month after full vaccination to 47% (43-51) after 5 months. Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85-97]) but declined to 53% [39-65] after 4 months. Effectiveness against other (non-delta) variants the first month after full vaccination was also high at 97% (95% CI 95-99), but waned to 67% (45-80) at 4-5 months. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84-96]) up to 6 months. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Incidence and predictors of type 1 diabetes among younger adults aged 20-45 years: The diabetes in young adults (DiYA) study.

AIMS: To estimate incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and to develop a T1D prediction model among young adults. METHODS: Adults 20-45 years newly-diagnosed with diabetes in 2017 were identified within Kaiser Permanente's healthcare systems in California and invited for diabetes autoantibody (DAA) testing. Multiple imputation was conducted to assign missing DAA status. The primary outcome for incidence rates (IR) and the prediction model was T1D defined by ≥1 positive DAA. RESULTS: Among 2,347,989 persons at risk, 7862 developed diabetes, 2063 had DAA measured, and 166 (8.0%) had ≥1 positive DAA. T1D IR (95% CI) per 100,000 person-years was 15.2 (10.2-20.1) for ages 20-29 and 38.2 (28.6-47.8) for ages 30-44 years. The age-standardized IRs were 32.5 (22.2-42.8) for men and 27.2 (21.0-34.5) for women. The age/sex-standardized IRs were 30.1 (23.5-36.8) overall; 41.4 (25.3-57.5) for Hispanics, 37.0 (11.6-62.4) for Blacks, 21.4 (14.3-28.6) for non-Hispanic Whites, and 19.4 (8.5-30.2) for Asians. Predictors of T1D among cases included female sex, younger age, lower BMI, insulin use and having T1D based on diagnostic codes. CONCLUSIONS: T1D may account for up to 8% of incident diabetes cases among young adults. Follow-up is needed to establish the clinical course of patients with one DAA at diagnosis.

Evaluation of the New American Urological Association Guidelines Risk Classification for Hematuria.

PURPOSE: Microhematuria is a prevalent condition and the American Urological Association has developed a new risk-stratified approach for the evaluation of patients with microhematuria. Our objective was to provide the first evaluation of this important guideline. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This multinational cohort study combines contemporary patients from 5 clinical trials and 2 prospective registries who underwent urological evaluation for hematuria. Patients were stratified into American Urological Association risk strata (low, intermediate or high risk) based on sex, age, degree of hematuria, and smoking history. The primary end point was the incidence of bladder cancer within each risk stratum. RESULTS: A total of 15,779 patients were included in the analysis. Overall, 727 patients (4.6%) were classified as low risk, 1,863 patients (11.8%) were classified as intermediate risk, and 13,189 patients (83.6%) were classified as high risk. The predominance of high risk patients was consistent across all cohorts. A total of 857 bladder cancers were diagnosed with a bladder cancer incidence of 5.4%. Bladder cancer was more prevalent in men, smokers, older patients and patients with gross hematuria. The cancer incidence for low, intermediate and high risk groups was 0.4% (3 patients), 1.0% (18 patients) and 6.3% (836 patients), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new risk stratification system separates hematuria patients into clinically meaningful categories with differing likelihoods of bladder cancer that would justify evaluating the low, intermediate and high risk groups with incremental intensity. Furthermore, it provides the relative incidence of bladder cancer in each risk group which should facilitate patient counseling regarding the risks and benefits of evaluation for bladder cancer.